MOBS LAB AT NORTHEASTERN UNIVERSITY

The model has high spatial and temporal resolution, and integrates real-world demographic, human mobility, socioeconomic, temperature, and vector density data. We estimate that the first introduction of ZIKV to Brazil likely occurred between August 2013 and April 2014. We provide simulated epidemic profiles of incident ZIKV infections for several countries in the Americas through December 2016. The ZIKV epidemic is characterized by slow growth and high spatial and seasonal heterogeneity, attributable to the mosquito vector and characteristics of the human populations and their mobility. We project the expected timing and number of cases of microcephaly assuming three levels of risk associated with ZIKV infection during the first trimester of pregnancy.