MARKET THINKING

J.M Keynes famously noted that "The market can remain irrational much longer than I can remain solvent" and the notion of bubbles and ‘irrational exuberance' is built in to much observation and commentary on markets, leading to embedded positions of perma bulls or, more usually, perma bears. Both will have their moment in the spotlight, but such polarity is of little practical help to investors. The idea of Market Thinking therefore is to be more pragmatic, it posits that the markets are in fact rational, at any time reflecting the mean or median of a normally distributed set of risk and return expectations from a mix of market participants. The fact that these participants can vary in size and influence is what makes the prediction of overall market behaviour so difficult, but observing the internal workings of markets, analysing and understanding the key players and recognising that the narrative that drives markets in the short term is always most powerful at turning points are..

Also known as: Market Thinking Limited, Market Thinking Ltd.